The Mathematics Behind Ticket Valuation

Why EV Matters Expected Value (EV) is a core concept in understanding the potential long-term benefits of holding tickets in a rewards-based system. It helps estimate the average value a ticket will return over time, taking into account current platform dynamics.

Calculating Expected Value (EV)

The expected value of a single ticket depends on two key variables:

  • Available_rewards: This includes 85% of platform fees plus some of pSOL mints (post-migration) that are continuously added to the rewards pool.

  • Tickets_held: The total number of tickets currently in circulation across all users.

EV Formula:

EVper ticket=(Available_rewardsTickets_held)×Multiplier×Balancing_FactorEV_{\text{per ticket}} = \left( \frac{\text{Available\_rewards}}{\text{Tickets\_held}} \right) \times \text{Multiplier} \times \text{Balancing\_Factor}

Where:

  • Multiplier reflects any game or user-specific reward multipliers.

  • Balancing_Factor is an internal scaling variable (currently set to 0.5) to ensure long-term sustainability.

Why Holding Tickets Is Strategic

  • Compounding Value Over Time: Since the EV grows as more users play and contribute to the rewards pool, each ticket becomes more valuable the longer you hold it—assuming others continue to participate.

  • Increased Share of Rewards: When someone plays before you, they reduce the total rewards available, but also reduce the number of tickets in competition (if tickets are burned or spent), potentially increasing your share.

  • Better Risk-Reward Ratio: Given that each ticket's EV is around 90% of its cost even in the short term, holding for higher pool accumulation can easily tip the balance in your favor.

Points allocation

  • Base rate: Each ticket grants 1.85 base points. Your final total is multiplied by the personal multiplier you receive and the amount of tickets you use to play.

  • Time-limited: This feature (and its point value) is available only during the first season. It may return in the future, but with fewer rewards.

  • Additional incentives:

    • Although the point amount doesn’t scale with the ticket’s underlying rewards, it still offers a fixed bonus for exchanging tickets.

    • The season-end cutoff encourages users to spend at least some tickets now rather than hoard them.

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